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  • 1. Aims and Scope

    Gut and Liver is an international journal of gastroenterology, focusing on the gastrointestinal tract, liver, biliary tree, pancreas, motility, and neurogastroenterology. Gut atnd Liver delivers up-to-date, authoritative papers on both clinical and research-based topics in gastroenterology. The Journal publishes original articles, case reports, brief communications, letters to the editor and invited review articles in the field of gastroenterology. The Journal is operated by internationally renowned editorial boards and designed to provide a global opportunity to promote academic developments in the field of gastroenterology and hepatology. +MORE

  • 2. Editorial Board

    Editor-in-Chief + MORE

    Editor-in-Chief
    Yong Chan Lee Professor of Medicine
    Director, Gastrointestinal Research Laboratory
    Veterans Affairs Medical Center, Univ. California San Francisco
    San Francisco, USA

    Deputy Editor

    Deputy Editor
    Jong Pil Im Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea
    Robert S. Bresalier University of Texas M. D. Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, USA
    Steven H. Itzkowitz Mount Sinai Medical Center, NY, USA
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    All papers submitted to Gut and Liver are reviewed by the editorial team before being sent out for an external peer review to rule out papers that have low priority, insufficient originality, scientific flaws, or the absence of a message of importance to the readers of the Journal. A decision about these papers will usually be made within two or three weeks.
    The remaining articles are usually sent to two reviewers. It would be very helpful if you could suggest a selection of reviewers and include their contact details. We may not always use the reviewers you recommend, but suggesting reviewers will make our reviewer database much richer; in the end, everyone will benefit. We reserve the right to return manuscripts in which no reviewers are suggested.

    The final responsibility for the decision to accept or reject lies with the editors. In many cases, papers may be rejected despite favorable reviews because of editorial policy or a lack of space. The editor retains the right to determine publication priorities, the style of the paper, and to request, if necessary, that the material submitted be shortened for publication.

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Development and External Validation of Survival Prediction Model for Pancreatic Cancer Using Two Nationwide Database: Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) and Korea Tumor Registry System-Biliary Pancreas (KOTUS-BP)

Jae Seung Kang1 , Lydia Mok2 , Jin Seok Heo3 , In Woong Han3 , Sang Hyun Shin3 , Yoo-Seok Yoon4 , Ho-Seong Han4 , Dae Wook Hwang5 , Jae Hoon Lee5 , Woo Jung Lee6 , Sang Jae Park7 , Joon Seong Park8 , Yonghoon Kim9 , Huisong Lee10 , Young-Dong Yu11 , Jae Do Yang12 , Seung Eun Lee13 , Il Young Park14 , Chi-Young Jeong15 , Younghoon Roh16 , Seong-Ryong Kim17 , Ju Ik Moon18 , Sang Kuon Lee19 , Hee Joon Kim20 , Seungyeoun Lee21 , Hongbeom Kim22 , Wooil Kwon22 , Chang-Sup Lim1 , Jin-Young Jang22 , and Taesung Park2

1Department of Surgery, Seoul Metropolitan Government Seoul National University Boramae Medical Center, 2Department of Statistics and Interdisciplinary Program in Bioinformatics, Seoul National University, 3Department of Surgery, Samsung Medical Center, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, 4Department of Surgery, Seoul National University Bundang Hospital, Seoul National University College of Medicine, 5Department of Surgery, Asan Medical Center, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, 6Division of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Surgery, Department of Surgery, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, 7Center for Liver and Pancreatobiliary Cancer, National Cancer Center, Goyang, 8Pancreatobiliary Cancer Clinic, Department of Surgery, Gangnam Severance Hospital, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, 9Department of Surgery, Keimyung University Dongsan Medical Center, Keimyung University School of Medicine, Daegu, 10Department of Surgery, Ewha Womans University Mokdong Hospital, Ewha Womans University School of Medicine, 11Division of HBP Surgery and Liver Transplantation, Department of Surgery, Korea University College of Medicine, Seoul, 12Department of Surgery, Jeonbuk National University Medical School, Jeonju, 13Department of Surgery, Chung-Ang University Hospital, Chung-Ang University College of Medicine, Seoul, 14Department of General Surgery, Bucheon St. Mary’s Hospital, College of Medicine, The Catholic University of Korea, Bucheon, 15Department of Surgery, Gyeongsang National University Hospital, Gyeongsang National University School of Medicine, Jinju, 16Department of Surgery, Dong-A University College of Medicine, Busan, 17Department of Surgery, Dongguk University Ilsan Hospital, Dongguk University College of Medicine, Goyang, 18Department of Surgery, Konyang University Hospital, 19Department of Surgery, Daejeon St. Mary's Hospital, College of Medicine, The Catholic University of Korea, Daejeon, 20Department of Surgery, Chonnam National University Hospital, Gwangju, 21Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Sejong University, and 22Department of Surgery and Cancer Research Institute, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea

Correspondence to:Chang-Sup Lim
ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2349-9647
E-mail limcs7@gmail.com

Jin-Young Jang
ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3312-0503
E-mail jangjy4@snu.ac.kr

Taesung Park
ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8294-590X
E-mail tspark@stats.snu.ac.kr

Jae Seung Kang, Lydia Mok, and Jin Seok Heo contributed equally to this work as first authors.

Received: September 29, 2020; Revised: December 31, 2020; Accepted: January 15, 2021

This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0) which permits unrestricted non-commercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Gut and Liver

Published online May 7, 2021

Copyright © Gut and Liver.

Abstract

Background/Aims: Several prediction models for evaluating the prognosis of nonmetastatic resected pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) have been developed, and their performances were reported to be superior to that of the 8th edition of the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging system. We developed a prediction model to evaluate the prognosis of resected PDAC and externally validated it with data from a nationwide Korean database.
Methods: Data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database were utilized for model development, and data from the Korea Tumor Registry System-Biliary Pancreas (KOTUS-BP) database were used for external validation. Potential candidate variables for model development were age, sex, histologic differentiation, tumor location, adjuvant chemotherapy, and the AJCC 8th staging system T and N stages. For external validation, the concordance index (C-index) and time-dependent area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) were evaluated.
Results: Between 2004 and 2016, data from 9,624 patients were utilized for model development, and data from 3,282 patients were used for external validation. In the multivariate Cox proportional hazard model, age, sex, tumor location, T and N stages, histologic differentiation, and adjuvant chemotherapy were independent prognostic factors for resected PDAC. After an exhaustive search and 10-fold cross validation, the best model was finally developed, which included all prognostic variables. The C-index, 1-year, 2-year, 3-year, and 5-year time-dependent AUCs were 0.628, 0.650, 0.665, 0.675, and 0.686, respectively.
Conclusions: The survival prediction model for resected PDAC could provide quantitative survival probabilities with reliable performance. External validation studies with other nationwide databases are needed to evaluate the performance of this model.

Keywords: Pancreatic neoplasms, Survival, Prognosis


Article

ahead

Gut and Liver

Published online May 7, 2021

Copyright © Gut and Liver.

Development and External Validation of Survival Prediction Model for Pancreatic Cancer Using Two Nationwide Database: Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) and Korea Tumor Registry System-Biliary Pancreas (KOTUS-BP)

Jae Seung Kang1 , Lydia Mok2 , Jin Seok Heo3 , In Woong Han3 , Sang Hyun Shin3 , Yoo-Seok Yoon4 , Ho-Seong Han4 , Dae Wook Hwang5 , Jae Hoon Lee5 , Woo Jung Lee6 , Sang Jae Park7 , Joon Seong Park8 , Yonghoon Kim9 , Huisong Lee10 , Young-Dong Yu11 , Jae Do Yang12 , Seung Eun Lee13 , Il Young Park14 , Chi-Young Jeong15 , Younghoon Roh16 , Seong-Ryong Kim17 , Ju Ik Moon18 , Sang Kuon Lee19 , Hee Joon Kim20 , Seungyeoun Lee21 , Hongbeom Kim22 , Wooil Kwon22 , Chang-Sup Lim1 , Jin-Young Jang22 , and Taesung Park2

1Department of Surgery, Seoul Metropolitan Government Seoul National University Boramae Medical Center, 2Department of Statistics and Interdisciplinary Program in Bioinformatics, Seoul National University, 3Department of Surgery, Samsung Medical Center, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, 4Department of Surgery, Seoul National University Bundang Hospital, Seoul National University College of Medicine, 5Department of Surgery, Asan Medical Center, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, 6Division of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Surgery, Department of Surgery, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, 7Center for Liver and Pancreatobiliary Cancer, National Cancer Center, Goyang, 8Pancreatobiliary Cancer Clinic, Department of Surgery, Gangnam Severance Hospital, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, 9Department of Surgery, Keimyung University Dongsan Medical Center, Keimyung University School of Medicine, Daegu, 10Department of Surgery, Ewha Womans University Mokdong Hospital, Ewha Womans University School of Medicine, 11Division of HBP Surgery and Liver Transplantation, Department of Surgery, Korea University College of Medicine, Seoul, 12Department of Surgery, Jeonbuk National University Medical School, Jeonju, 13Department of Surgery, Chung-Ang University Hospital, Chung-Ang University College of Medicine, Seoul, 14Department of General Surgery, Bucheon St. Mary’s Hospital, College of Medicine, The Catholic University of Korea, Bucheon, 15Department of Surgery, Gyeongsang National University Hospital, Gyeongsang National University School of Medicine, Jinju, 16Department of Surgery, Dong-A University College of Medicine, Busan, 17Department of Surgery, Dongguk University Ilsan Hospital, Dongguk University College of Medicine, Goyang, 18Department of Surgery, Konyang University Hospital, 19Department of Surgery, Daejeon St. Mary's Hospital, College of Medicine, The Catholic University of Korea, Daejeon, 20Department of Surgery, Chonnam National University Hospital, Gwangju, 21Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Sejong University, and 22Department of Surgery and Cancer Research Institute, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea

Correspondence to:Chang-Sup Lim
ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2349-9647
E-mail limcs7@gmail.com

Jin-Young Jang
ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3312-0503
E-mail jangjy4@snu.ac.kr

Taesung Park
ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8294-590X
E-mail tspark@stats.snu.ac.kr

Jae Seung Kang, Lydia Mok, and Jin Seok Heo contributed equally to this work as first authors.

Received: September 29, 2020; Revised: December 31, 2020; Accepted: January 15, 2021

This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0) which permits unrestricted non-commercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Abstract

Background/Aims: Several prediction models for evaluating the prognosis of nonmetastatic resected pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) have been developed, and their performances were reported to be superior to that of the 8th edition of the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging system. We developed a prediction model to evaluate the prognosis of resected PDAC and externally validated it with data from a nationwide Korean database.
Methods: Data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database were utilized for model development, and data from the Korea Tumor Registry System-Biliary Pancreas (KOTUS-BP) database were used for external validation. Potential candidate variables for model development were age, sex, histologic differentiation, tumor location, adjuvant chemotherapy, and the AJCC 8th staging system T and N stages. For external validation, the concordance index (C-index) and time-dependent area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) were evaluated.
Results: Between 2004 and 2016, data from 9,624 patients were utilized for model development, and data from 3,282 patients were used for external validation. In the multivariate Cox proportional hazard model, age, sex, tumor location, T and N stages, histologic differentiation, and adjuvant chemotherapy were independent prognostic factors for resected PDAC. After an exhaustive search and 10-fold cross validation, the best model was finally developed, which included all prognostic variables. The C-index, 1-year, 2-year, 3-year, and 5-year time-dependent AUCs were 0.628, 0.650, 0.665, 0.675, and 0.686, respectively.
Conclusions: The survival prediction model for resected PDAC could provide quantitative survival probabilities with reliable performance. External validation studies with other nationwide databases are needed to evaluate the performance of this model.

Keywords: Pancreatic neoplasms, Survival, Prognosis

Gut and Liver

Vol.15 No.3
May, 2021

pISSN 1976-2283
eISSN 2005-1212

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