Gut and Liver https://doi.org/10.5009/gnl19111 Proposal of a New Risk Score for Patients Treated with Transarterial Chemoembolization due to Recurrent Hepatocellular Carcinoma after Curative Resection: A Multicenter Study
Author Information
Mi Young Jeon1,2 , Beom Kyung Kim1,2 , Jun Yong Park1,2 , Do Young Kim1,2 , Sang Hoon Ahn1,2 , Kwang-Hyub Han1,2 , Jeong-Hoon Lee3 , Su Jong Yu3 , Yoon Jun Kim3 , Jung-Hwan Yoon3 , Eun Ju Cho3 , and Seung Up Kim1,2
1Department of Internal Medicine, Institute of Gastroenterology, Yonsei University College of Medicine, 2Yonsei Liver Center, Severance Hospital, and 3Department of Internal Medicine and Liver Research Institute, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea

Seung Up Kima and Eun Ju Chob
aDepartment of Internal Medicine, Yonsei University College of Medicine, 50 Yonsei-ro, Seodaemun-gu, Seoul 03722, Korea
Tel: +82-2-2228-1982, Fax: +82-2-393-6884, E-mail: ksukorea@yuhs.ac
bDepartment of Internal Medicine and Liver Institute, Seoul National University College of Medicine, 101 Daehak-ro, Jongno-gu, Seoul 03080, Korea
Tel: +82-2-2072-2242, Fax: +82-2-743-6701, E-mail: creatioex@gmail.com
© The Korean Society of Gastroenterology, the Korean Society of Gastrointestinal Endoscopy, the Korean Society of Neurogastroenterology and Motility, Korean College of Helicobacter and Upper Gastrointestinal Research, Korean Association the Study of Intestinal Diseases, the Korean Association for the Study of the Liver, Korean Pancreatobiliary Association, and Korean Society of Gastrointestinal Cancer. All rights reserved.

Abstract
Background/Aims: Prognostic models are lacking for patients with recurrent hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) following surgical resection. This study devised and validated a new hepatoma arterial-embolization prognostic (HAP) score optimized for use in patients undergoing treatment with transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) for recurrence subsequent to surgical resection of HCC. Methods: Training cohort (n=424) and validation cohort (n=350) patients with recurrent HCC after resection treated with TACE between 2003 and 2016 were enrolled. Cox regression and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) analyses were used to identify risk factors for survival and to calculate the predictive performance of risk scores, respectively. Results: The median age of the study population was 59.2 years. α-Fetoprotein >400 ng/mL (hazard ratio [HR]=1.815), serum albumin ≤3.5 g/dL (HR=1.966), tumor number ≥2 (HR=1.425), tumor size >5 cm at resection or recurrence (HR=1.356), segmental portal vein invasion at resection or recurrence (HR=2.032), and time from resection to recurrence ≤1 years (HR=1.849) independently predicted survival (all p<0.05). The postoperative HAP (pHAP) model based on the rounded HRs of these variables showed an AUC of 0.723 for predicting survival at 3 years, which was significantly higher than AUCs of other HAP-based models, including HAP, modified HAP, and modified HAP-II scores (0.578-0.621) (all p<0.05). The accuracy of pHAP was maintained in the entire cohort (n=774; AUC=0.776 at 3 years). Conclusions: A new pHAP score optimized for patients treated with TACE due to recurrent HCC after resection showed acceptable accuracy and was externally validated. Further studies of means by which to select treatment options other than TACE for high-risk patients according to pHAP scores are warranted.
Keywords: Chemoembolization; Surgery; Recurrence; Carcinoma, hepatocellular
Abstract
Background/Aims: Prognostic models are lacking for patients with recurrent hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) following surgical resection. This study devised and validated a new hepatoma arterial-embolization prognostic (HAP) score optimized for use in patients undergoing treatment with transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) for recurrence subsequent to surgical resection of HCC. Methods: Training cohort (n=424) and validation cohort (n=350) patients with recurrent HCC after resection treated with TACE between 2003 and 2016 were enrolled. Cox regression and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) analyses were used to identify risk factors for survival and to calculate the predictive performance of risk scores, respectively. Results: The median age of the study population was 59.2 years. α-Fetoprotein >400 ng/mL (hazard ratio [HR]=1.815), serum albumin ≤3.5 g/dL (HR=1.966), tumor number ≥2 (HR=1.425), tumor size >5 cm at resection or recurrence (HR=1.356), segmental portal vein invasion at resection or recurrence (HR=2.032), and time from resection to recurrence ≤1 years (HR=1.849) independently predicted survival (all p<0.05). The postoperative HAP (pHAP) model based on the rounded HRs of these variables showed an AUC of 0.723 for predicting survival at 3 years, which was significantly higher than AUCs of other HAP-based models, including HAP, modified HAP, and modified HAP-II scores (0.578-0.621) (all p<0.05). The accuracy of pHAP was maintained in the entire cohort (n=774; AUC=0.776 at 3 years). Conclusions: A new pHAP score optimized for patients treated with TACE due to recurrent HCC after resection showed acceptable accuracy and was externally validated. Further studies of means by which to select treatment options other than TACE for high-risk patients according to pHAP scores are warranted.
Keywords: Chemoembolization; Surgery; Recurrence; Carcinoma, hepatocellular
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