Gut and Liver https://doi.org/10.5009/gnl19112 Appraisal of a Model to Estimate Survival in Ambulatory Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma Classified as Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer Stage B
Author Information
Jeong-Ju Yoo1 , Su Jong Yu2 , Bora Lee3 , Eun Ju Cho2 , Jeong-Hoon Lee2 , Sang Gyune Kim1 , Yoon Jun Kim2 , Young Seok Kim1 , and Jung-Hwan Yoon2
1Department of Internal Medicine, Soonchunhyang University School of Medicine, Bucheon, 2Department of Internal Medicine and Liver Research Institute, Seoul National University College of Medicine, and 3Department of Statistics, Graduate School, Chung-Ang University, Seoul, Korea

Su Jong Yu
Department of Internal Medicine and Liver Research Institute, Seoul National University College of Medicine, 101 Daehak-ro, Jongno-gu, Seoul 03080, Korea
Tel: +82-2-2072-2228, Fax: +82-2-743-6701, E-mail: ydoctor2@hanmail.net
© The Korean Society of Gastroenterology, the Korean Society of Gastrointestinal Endoscopy, the Korean Society of Neurogastroenterology and Motility, Korean College of Helicobacter and Upper Gastrointestinal Research, Korean Association the Study of Intestinal Diseases, the Korean Association for the Study of the Liver, Korean Pancreatobiliary Association, and Korean Society of Gastrointestinal Cancer. All rights reserved.

Abstract
Background/Aims: Patients with an intermediate stage of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) represent a highly heterogeneous population; therefore, many models have been proposed to predict the survival of these patients. The aim of this study was to evaluate the prognostic performance of a novel subclassification for tumors classified as Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage B using the Model to Estimate Survival in Ambulatory HCC patients (MESIAH). Methods: This analysis was based on 377 patients with HCC treated at Seoul National University Hospital (training cohort) and 189 patients at the Soonchunhyang University Bucheon Hospital (validation cohort). Four subclassification systems were tested: MESIAH; original BCLC B subclassification (B1, B2, B3, and B4); modified model A (B1, B2, and B3+B4); and modified model B (B1, B2+B3, and B4). Results: Median survival progressively decreased from stage B1 through stages B2 to B3 according to the new MESIAH subclassification (p<0.001). Moreover, significantly different survival among contiguous stages was observed. In the multivariable Cox regression, the MESIAH subclassification was an independent predictor of overall survival (p<0.001). In terms of discrimination and calibration, MESIAH performed better than the original BCLC B subclassification, modified model A and modified model B. Conclusions: The MESIAH model would be an effective tool for stratifying heterogeneous BCLC stage B cancer, and the ability of this model to predict survival is better than that of the other previously proposed models.
Keywords: Carcinoma, hepatocellular; Survival; Classification
Abstract
Background/Aims: Patients with an intermediate stage of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) represent a highly heterogeneous population; therefore, many models have been proposed to predict the survival of these patients. The aim of this study was to evaluate the prognostic performance of a novel subclassification for tumors classified as Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage B using the Model to Estimate Survival in Ambulatory HCC patients (MESIAH). Methods: This analysis was based on 377 patients with HCC treated at Seoul National University Hospital (training cohort) and 189 patients at the Soonchunhyang University Bucheon Hospital (validation cohort). Four subclassification systems were tested: MESIAH; original BCLC B subclassification (B1, B2, B3, and B4); modified model A (B1, B2, and B3+B4); and modified model B (B1, B2+B3, and B4). Results: Median survival progressively decreased from stage B1 through stages B2 to B3 according to the new MESIAH subclassification (p<0.001). Moreover, significantly different survival among contiguous stages was observed. In the multivariable Cox regression, the MESIAH subclassification was an independent predictor of overall survival (p<0.001). In terms of discrimination and calibration, MESIAH performed better than the original BCLC B subclassification, modified model A and modified model B. Conclusions: The MESIAH model would be an effective tool for stratifying heterogeneous BCLC stage B cancer, and the ability of this model to predict survival is better than that of the other previously proposed models.
Keywords: Carcinoma, hepatocellular; Survival; Classification
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