Gut and Liver https://doi.org/10.5009/gnl19173 Simple Noninvasive Scores Are Clinically Useful to Exclude, Not Predict, Advanced Fibrosis: A Study in Turkish Patients with Biopsy-Proven Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease
Author Information
Eda Kaya1 , Alev Bakir2 , Haluk Tarik Kani3 , Coskun Ozer Demirtas3 , Caglayan Keklikkiran3 , and Yusuf Yilmaz3,4
1Cerrahpasa School of Medicine, Istanbul University-Cerrahpasa, 2Department of Biostatistics and Medical Informatics, Halic University, 3Department of Gastroenterology, and 4Institute of Gastroenterology, Marmara University School of Medicine, Istanbul, Turkey

Yusuf Yilmaz
Department of Gastroenterology, Marmara University School of Medicine, P.K. 53, Basibuyuk, Maltepe, Istanbul 34840, Turkey
Tel: +90-5334403995, Fax: +90-2166886681, E-mail: dryusufyilmaz@gmail.com
© The Korean Society of Gastroenterology, the Korean Society of Gastrointestinal Endoscopy, the Korean Society of Neurogastroenterology and Motility, Korean College of Helicobacter and Upper Gastrointestinal Research, Korean Association the Study of Intestinal Diseases, the Korean Association for the Study of the Liver, Korean Pancreatobiliary Association, and Korean Society of Gastrointestinal Cancer. All rights reserved.

Abstract
Background/Aims: Advanced fibrosis (F≥3) indicates poor outcomes in nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). Here, we examined the diagnostic performance of the fibrosis-4 index (FIB-4) and NAFLD fibrosis score (NFS) for detecting (or excluding) advanced fibrosis in patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD. Methods: The diagnostic performance of each non-invasive test according to previously identified cutoff points indicating low and high risk for advanced fibrosis was determined in 463 patients with NAFLD. Patients who scored <1.3 and >2.67 on the FIB-4 were considered at low and high risk for advanced fibrosis, respectively. Patients who scored <–1.455 and >0.676 on the NFS were considered at low and high risk for advanced fibrosis, respectively. Results: Eighty-one patients (17.5%) had biopsy-proven advanced fibrosis (F≥3). The published FIB-4 cutoff values for low and high risk were able to exclude advanced fibrosis with negative predictive values (NPVs) of 0.907 and 0.843 and specificities of 74% and 97%, respectively. The published NFS cutoff values for low and high risk were able to exclude advanced fibrosis with NPVs of 0.913 and 0.842 and specificities of 63% and 96%, respectively. If biopsies were performed in only patients with a FIB-4 above the low cutoff point (≥1.3), 67.1% could be avoided. Conversely, if biopsies were performed in only patients with an NFS above the low cutoff point (≥–1.455), 57.0% could be avoided. Conclusions: The main clinical utility of the FIB-4 and NFS in patients with NAFLD lies in the ability to exclude, not identify, advanced fibrosis.
Keywords: Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease; Liver fibrosis; Diagnostic test; Sensitivity and specificity
Abstract
Background/Aims: Advanced fibrosis (F≥3) indicates poor outcomes in nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). Here, we examined the diagnostic performance of the fibrosis-4 index (FIB-4) and NAFLD fibrosis score (NFS) for detecting (or excluding) advanced fibrosis in patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD. Methods: The diagnostic performance of each non-invasive test according to previously identified cutoff points indicating low and high risk for advanced fibrosis was determined in 463 patients with NAFLD. Patients who scored <1.3 and >2.67 on the FIB-4 were considered at low and high risk for advanced fibrosis, respectively. Patients who scored <–1.455 and >0.676 on the NFS were considered at low and high risk for advanced fibrosis, respectively. Results: Eighty-one patients (17.5%) had biopsy-proven advanced fibrosis (F≥3). The published FIB-4 cutoff values for low and high risk were able to exclude advanced fibrosis with negative predictive values (NPVs) of 0.907 and 0.843 and specificities of 74% and 97%, respectively. The published NFS cutoff values for low and high risk were able to exclude advanced fibrosis with NPVs of 0.913 and 0.842 and specificities of 63% and 96%, respectively. If biopsies were performed in only patients with a FIB-4 above the low cutoff point (≥1.3), 67.1% could be avoided. Conversely, if biopsies were performed in only patients with an NFS above the low cutoff point (≥–1.455), 57.0% could be avoided. Conclusions: The main clinical utility of the FIB-4 and NFS in patients with NAFLD lies in the ability to exclude, not identify, advanced fibrosis.
Keywords: Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease; Liver fibrosis; Diagnostic test; Sensitivity and specificity
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