Gut and Liver https://doi.org/10.5009/gnl18557 Predictive Model of Nonneoplastic Pathology after Endoscopic Resection of Gastric Epithelial Neoplasia
Author Information
Tae-Geun Gweon, Byung-Wook Kim*, Joon Sung Kim, Sung Min Park, Jeong Seon Ji and Bo-In Lee
Division of Gastroenterology, Department of Internal Medicine, Incheon St. Mary’s Hospital, College of Medicine, The Catholic University of Korea, Seoul, Korea

Byung-Wook Kim
Division of Gastroenterology, Department of Internal Medicine, Incheon St. Mary's Hospital, College of Medicine, The Catholic University of Korea, 56 Dongsu-ro, Bupyeong-gu, Incheon 21431, Korea
Tel: +82-32-280-5052, Fax: +82-32-280-5987, E-mail: gastro@catholic.ac.kr
© The Korean Society of Gastroenterology, the Korean Society of Gastrointestinal Endoscopy, the Korean Society of Neurogastroenterology and Motility, Korean College of Helicobacter and Upper Gastrointestinal Research, Korean Association the Study of Intestinal Diseases, the Korean Association for the Study of the Liver, Korean Pancreatobiliary Association, and Korean Society of Gastrointestinal Cancer. All rights reserved.

Abstract
Background/Aims: The rate of nonneoplastic pathology (NNP) after endoscopic resection (ER) of gastric epithelial neoplasia (GEN) has been reported to be 3%–7%. However, to date, the associations of pretreatment characteristics with NNP have not been identified. The aim of this study was to develop a predictive model for NNP after ER. Methods: Among 817 patients who underwent ER for GEN, factors associated with NNP were identified by univariate and multivariate analyses. Weighted points considering the β coefficient were allocated to each variable that was significant in the multivariate analysis. The predictive score was calculated by the total points. The area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC) was calculated for the predictive score. Results: The rate of NNP was 8.8%. After multivariate analysis, poor demarcation from the background, no ulceration, a flat appearance, and low-grade dysplasia were significant factors predictive of NNP. One point each was allocated for no ulcer, flat appearance, and low-grade dysplasia. Two points were allocated for poor demarcation from the background. The predictive score ranged from 0 to 5 points. Patients were categorized as being at low risk (0, 1, or 2 points) or high risk (3, 4, or 5 points) for NNP. The AUROC was 0.82 (95% confidence interval, 0.77 to 0.88; p<0.01). With a cutoff value of 2.5, the sensitivity and specificity of the score for predicting NNP were 0.72 and 0.84, respectively. Conclusions: We developed a model to predict NNP after ER. Endoscopic re-biopsy or re-evaluation by pathologists is strongly recommended for the high-risk group.
Keywords: Gastric epithelial neoplasia, Endoscopic resection, Non-neoplastic pathology
Abstract
Background/Aims: The rate of nonneoplastic pathology (NNP) after endoscopic resection (ER) of gastric epithelial neoplasia (GEN) has been reported to be 3%–7%. However, to date, the associations of pretreatment characteristics with NNP have not been identified. The aim of this study was to develop a predictive model for NNP after ER. Methods: Among 817 patients who underwent ER for GEN, factors associated with NNP were identified by univariate and multivariate analyses. Weighted points considering the β coefficient were allocated to each variable that was significant in the multivariate analysis. The predictive score was calculated by the total points. The area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC) was calculated for the predictive score. Results: The rate of NNP was 8.8%. After multivariate analysis, poor demarcation from the background, no ulceration, a flat appearance, and low-grade dysplasia were significant factors predictive of NNP. One point each was allocated for no ulcer, flat appearance, and low-grade dysplasia. Two points were allocated for poor demarcation from the background. The predictive score ranged from 0 to 5 points. Patients were categorized as being at low risk (0, 1, or 2 points) or high risk (3, 4, or 5 points) for NNP. The AUROC was 0.82 (95% confidence interval, 0.77 to 0.88; p<0.01). With a cutoff value of 2.5, the sensitivity and specificity of the score for predicting NNP were 0.72 and 0.84, respectively. Conclusions: We developed a model to predict NNP after ER. Endoscopic re-biopsy or re-evaluation by pathologists is strongly recommended for the high-risk group.
Keywords: Gastric epithelial neoplasia, Endoscopic resection, Non-neoplastic pathology
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